Today is the second anniversary of the EU referendum in UK and we can conclude the House of Commons approved a referendum with the possibility to leave the European Union without a plan.
Another conclusion that we can take today is the Conservative Government and the Prime-Minister Theresa May precipitated to trigger article 50º without a definition what really means Brexit, without any studies of the impact of Brexit in UK and the most important without having a plan for the Brexit to have the chances to be successful.
Instead the Prime-Minister Theresa May preferred the populism approach using slogans as “Brexit means Brexit”, “No deal is better than a bad deal” and “Brexit is the opportunity to build a Global Britain”.
It is also true that defining the possibility of leaving the European Union in two years is unrealistic. Hong Kong had a transition period of more than ten years to be transferred from the UK to China. I have many doubts that the transition of this example is more complex than leaving the European Union, so I can only conclude that the possibility of any country leave the EU in two years was defined for no country would leave it.
So if the Conservative Party were a government that put the interests of the country ahead of any other interest, the first thing they did after the referendum would be to negotiate a longer period to leave the European Union with all steps and the red lines. In my opinion dismantle all existing agreements, links and establish new relations with the European Union will never be possible in less than 10 years. The politicians have to be realistic and to be honest with the people to say that.
In politics should have intelligence and sense of state and unfortunately Theresa May preferred to book a new general election in the expectation that the Conservative Party would have a large majority. An error that weakened the position of the UK in the Brexit negotiations and made the negotiations more difficult.
The true is that, Brexit means in March of 2019: the UK loses its voice in EU, loses two European Agencies but apparently the rest remain the same as today. In my opinion the UK might be at risk of remaining in “EU limbo” for many years without any influence on the European Institutions. The UK only have two solutions:
1- Stop the Brexit and as a member participate actively in proposals that reform and democratize the European institutions.
2- Negotiate the extension of the transitional period to 10 years, thoroughly defining all phases and establish a realistic future relationship with the European Union.
If you ask me my opinion I would choose the first option: Stop the Brexit. But it will have to be the British people to choose. I will continue to give my best to influence the UK to be successful in this issue.